Kapolei, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

066
FXHW60 PHFO 251352
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
352 AM HST Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Trades ease to gentle to moderate strength today, lasting through
early next week prior to restrengthening Tuesday or Wednesday of
next week. Limited shower activity will be focused over windward
areas into Saturday, and with the exception a few showers on the
South Kona slopes each afternoon, leeward areas will be mostly
dry. An increase in mainly windward and mauka rainfall is possible
late Saturday into Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Broad area of high pressure well north of the islands will help
maintain stable and dry conditions through the next couple days.
Trades will ease to gentle to moderate strength today and into the
weekend in response to an approaching weak surface trough from
the east. While this trough is progged to dissipate upon reaching
the islands, the associated moisture escorted by the trough may
be just enough to increase humidity levels and prompt a greater
chance for windward showers across Big Island and possibly Maui
County during the latter half of the weekend, and then further
north into Oahu and Kauai by early next week. Otherwise, shower
activity will be limited and primarily across windward and mauka
areas, with exception to the South Kona slopes during the
afternoon periods.

Latest model guidance continues to depict trades strengthening
back to moderate to locally breezy by Tuesday or Wednesday of
next week, however, with uncertainty persisting with regards to
tropical development south of Hawaii, confidence of the forecast
remains low. That said, the likeliness of breezy trades within
drier conditions is high.


&&

.AVIATION...
Gentle to moderate trades will persist through the next several
days under a relatively stable and dry pattern. Expect
predominately VFR conditions across the Hawaiian Islands, however,
brief periods of isolated showers across windward and mountain
areas remain possible.

There currently are no AIRMETs in effect.



&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure north of the area will continue to
weaken today, allowing for moderate to locally fresh trades. The
ridge will further weaken this weekend, easing wind speeds to
gentle to fresh. Moderate to strong trades are expected to return
during the first half of next week as the ridge strengthens
northeast of the state and a tropical disturbance tracks well
south of the state.

Small background south swell will keep surf above flat levels
along south facing shores through early next week. A Gale force
low east of New Zealand is expected to generate a series of small
to moderate, long period, south swells that could begin to fill
in by mid next week and produce above average surf. The surf
could approach High Surf Advisory criteria during the peak of the
event mid to late next week.

Choppy surf along east facing shores should trend down into the
weekend as winds locally and upstream ease. Flat to tiny surf
expected along north facing shores through the forecast period.

Peak afternoon high tides combined with elevated water levels
continue to run about half a foot higher than predicted. This
trend will continue through this afternoon and could lead to
minor flooding along the shoreline and in low lying coastal areas
of Maui County and the Big Island. Water levels should lower below
thresholds during peak afternoon high tides by the weekend.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and stable conditions will persist through Saturday, but
locally breezy trade winds will ease slightly beginning today. A
shallow area of moisture moving in from the east should bring an
increase in humidity late Saturday into Monday, further decreasing
fire weather concerns. Trade winds are expected to restrengthen
Tuesday or Wednesday, with developing dry conditions
reestablishing, may result in elevated fire weather concerns
next week.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Pierce
MARINE...Thomas
FIRE WEATHER...Pierce